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Gold above USD 2250 after a strong start to the weekEx BOJ official says next rate hike in Japan will be in October at the earliestAUD traders heads up – two important events coming from the RBA on TuesdayChina Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March 51.1 (expected 51.0, prior 50.9)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0938 (vs. estimate at 7.2191)What to watch in Japanese comments for USD/JPY selling intervention getting closerJapan Final Manufacturing PMI for March 2024 comes in at 48.2 (flash 48.2, prior 47.2)Japan PM Kishida: Share an understanding of FX moves with MoF’s KandaJapan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves undesirable, recent moves speculativeBOJ Tankan Q1 2024: Large Manufacturers Index +11 (expected +10)China’s SAIC aims to slash jobs at GM, VW ventures and EV unit (unnamed sources cited)ICYMI – China’s March 2024 manufacturing PMI jumped to its highest in a yearUS jobs report for March – NFP – event of the week?US futures markets have reopened – Sunday evening Globex trade, ES jumps higherEx-Fed Vice Chair Clarida says FOMC could cut in June even if CPI stays high – here’s howECB’s Holzmann says the European Central Bank may cut rates ahead of the USECB’s Stournaras says four 25bp interest rate cuts are feasible in 2024Here are the Asian markets still on holidays Monday, 1 April 2024, and which ones are openTrade ideas thread – Monday, 1 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasKickstart your FX trading week starting April 1 with a technical look at major pairsWeekly Market Outlook (01-05 April)China March 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (expected 50.1) Services 53.0 (exp 51.5)Heads up – EU, UK, Switzerland change to daylight saving time this weekendNewsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISMs, EZ & Swiss CPI, Minutes from ECB & RBAForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Powell says PCE report “pretty much in line”
It
was an active day for data flow here in Asia, which didn’t
translate into too much FX rate movement. Holidays continued in some
local centres with Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia all out.
Holidays will persist too into Europe and the UK but US markets are
back; stocks, bonds, and FX open. Globex is already open for Sunday
evening in the US as normal. As a heads up, ICYMI, much of Europe and
the UK switched onto daylight saving over the weekend.
From
Japan today we had the Q1 Bank of Japan Tankan report. It painted a
picture of a rather subdued economy. The inflation expectations part
of the survey showed firms still expecting above target (the BOJ 2%
target) inflation. We also had verbal intervention comments from
Japanese finance minister Suzuki and also from Prime Minister
Kishida. USD/JPY has traded in a small range only during the session.
Over
the weekend were official PMIs for March from China. Manufacturing and
non-manufacturing improved and both are now in expansion. The
improvement for manufacturing was impressive, rising 1.7 points from
February. On Monday came the Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
which improved marginally and remained in expansion.
Across
major FX the early move, upon the opening of Globex and higher US
equity index futures, was for a weaker USD. This has since more or less
unwound and there is not a lot of net change to report on the day.
Gold the performer on the day:
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